Super Tuesday – What’s Next?
Okay, here are some early thoughts on possible scenarios for the 2008 election:
McCain vs. Clinton – McCain wins. As far as social conservatives are concerned, they are a lot alike, but Clinton makes their heads explode so they hold their nose and vote for McCain to keep Clinton from winning. Fiscal conservatives vote McCain. While Clinton has a strong fan base, I think a lot of democrats are pretty ambiguous about her. I bet some democrats would vote for McCain because he is moderate enough for them. I doubt she would inspire young people to vote.
McCain vs. Obama – Obama wins. Obama is progressive but he somehow still manages to speak to the typically slow to change church crowd. So social conservatives turned off by McCain stay home; the others vote Obama. Black people, 28-40 year-olds, and gay people (if he doesn’t start shrinking away from his current inclusive tenor), and Baby Boomers who are reminded of JFK (a narrative the Obama team is starting to nurture) flock to the polls for Obama in unprecedented numbers.
Romney – Clinton – I could see this one being close, but I would call it for Clinton. They both come off as cold. Romney is a Republican Kerry- a little too patrician, aloof. Clinton may be frumpy, but if it comes across as sensible this will be forgiven. They are both “say anything” candidates. Clinton’s narrative is at least more compelling and consistent. It might come down to a question of who the close-minded people fear most – a Mormon or a woman in power.
Romney vs. Obama: Obama. No one will be excited to vote for Romney. Obama will have a giant fan base by November.
1. I refuse to entertain the thought of Huckabee getting the Republican nomination.
2. You will notice I did not mention policy issues once in the discussion above. For the most part, I do not believe current elections are really about policy. They are about message and image communication. If we are lucky, we get a skilled leader to go along with these.
3. I really thought Kerry would win in 2004, so you can take all of the above with a grain of salt.